Post Election .... Waiting

As of 4 a.m. CST, there is still no official winner of the Presidential election. Bush is winning the popular vote by about 3 million votes, and there are four states without a declared winner (Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico). At this point, whoever wins Ohio wins the election.

As I predicted yesterday, the election will hinge - and is still hinged - on Ohio. Even though all precincts have been counted in Ohio, there are still several hundred thousand provisional and absentee ballots left to count. Bush is leading in Ohio by nearly 200,000 votes, and seems likely to hold that lead and be re-elected. Stranger things have happened (e.g. Florida 2000), but I am resolved that Bush will get the four more years he wanted.

What happened to Kerry? First of all, I must admit that he performed quite well, winning essentially all of the same states as Gore in 2000, plus New Hampshire. The fact there is not a definitive winner in this election says he was competitive. Why isn't Kerry winning Ohio now? Well, I think the anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment, which was overwhelmingly approved by a 3-2 margin yesterday, played a large factor in Bush's presumed Ohio victory. For as evil as I think that Karl Rove is, his plan to "save" traditional marriage with Bush's endorsement of a constitutional amendment to the referendums placed on 11 state ballots yesterday motivated people to vote. In Ohio, some people who might not have left their homes to vote just for president were motivated to "save" marriage (and outlaw all forms of civil unions in Ohio, too, but that's a whole other discussion) and cast a vote for Bush at the same time. James Bones, columnist for The Times in London, shares similar opinions.

The high voter turnout didn't help Kerry as most political pundits anticipated.

A clear Republican majority in both chambers of Congress and in The White House will create a interesting, possibly scary four years. If Bush continues on the same path he has been on for the last two years, there will be a Democrat elected in 2008. Whether or not it's Hillary Clinton is the $64,000 question ...