The Election According to This John

Today is the culmination of 18 months of verbal harrassment, mudslinging and old-fashioned bribing by the both (face it, there are only two choices) campaigns for President.

Most pollsters and pundits think it will be a close race today. I do not - well, not a razor thin margin. In fact, based on the electoral college, I think Kerry will win with a clear majority of the votes. I base my conclusion on three factors:

1. Many Bush supporters in 2000 are now supporting and voting for Kerry. Not only do I find this to be a common theme among friends, but I think the newspaper endorsements (or lack there of in some cases) send a clear message that people who previously supported Bush four years ago will be voting for Kerry today. Editor and Publisher magazine has a great summary of newspaper endorsements.

2. The huge number of new voter registrations, including those in the minority and poor communities. If these people vote today, Kerry will win the vote.

3. The cell phone factor: Pollseters only call registered voters/likely voters who have a home phone number listed when taking these widely broadcast polls. Statistics show that nearly 5% of Americans do not have a home landline, but use their cell phone as their only phone. Who are these people without a home phone? Usually young people (between 18 and 29), who statistically are more liberal and will vote Democratic.

As of midnight, Tuesday, November 2nd, here is what I see unfolding today:

The election hinges on six states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire. Whichever candidate wins most of those states will win the election. Before those states, I put the electoral vote at 227 for Bush, 227 for Kerry, with the remaining 84 votes to decided by those six states:

Florida goes to Bush, by a slim margin. His brother is governor, so even if Bush doesn't win the actual vote, I'm sure he'll still get all the electoral votes somehow. 254 Bush, 227 Kerry.

Iowa and New Mexico go to Kerry. 254 Bush, 239 Kerry.

New Hampshire goes to Bush. 258 Bush, 239 Kerry.

Pennsylvania, with the very Democratic Philly and Pittsburgh areas, will go to Kerry. 258 Bush, 260 Kerry.

So, as predicted, it all comes down to my home state - Ohio. And rightly so. Ohio has been hurt by economy more than any other state, and I think that today's election will reflect that sentiment. Kerry will win Ohio by 2 percent of the vote, giving him the Presidency with 280 electoral votes, compared to Bush's 258.

That's what I think, and I will reflect on my prediction tonight - at which time we will hopefully have a definitive winner in the race.

If you as much as a political junky as I am, here are two great websites that have created statistical models based on the polling numbers.

http://election.princeton.edu/

http://www.electoral-vote.com